Many believed that 2020 could not have gotten any more surprising. Spoiler: it did.

Most can recall the 2015 VMAs. If you are having trouble remembering exactly what happened, let me set the scene:

Millions across the United States watched the award show as Taylor Swift presented the Vanguard Award to Kanye West. To everyone’s surprise, Kanye announced his intention to run for President in the 2020 election while on live television. To sum up social media platforms after this happened in a single phrase, it would have to be utter chaos. The hashtag #Kanye2020 began circulating Twitter feeds as people expressed their criticism or incredulity. Arguably, this was the first time that Kanye became outwardly intentional with his politics.

The rapper pictured at one of his concerts.

From then on, as many know, Ye began to get close with POTUS Donald Trump, and was constantly seen wearing a MAGA hat. He has also been known to defend the President’s political decisions and opinions on Twitter. During this time, the public was aware that Kanye wanted to ultimately run for President, but the “hype” had died down on social media platforms in comparison to 2015. The possibility of Kanye even running for President became a meme to younger generations.

Fast forward to just this month, on July 4th (yes, you read that correctly), Kanye made his intention to run for office official on, no surprise here, Twitter:

Kanye’s tweet on July 4th, 2020.

He will be running under a third party called, and I am not joking, The Birthday Party. When asked about this eccentric name, the rapper said it’s “Because when we win, it’s everybody’s birthday”. He is planning to run again for the 2024 election. Kanye’s running mate has been announced as Michelle Tidball, who is a pastor from Wyoming.

So far, Kanye has been on the ballot in one state: Oklahoma. The rapper has also not given much insight on his political strategies. Kanye also held a single political rally in South Carolina on July 19th.

In order to run for President, there are many requirements that a candidate must go through. Two of these requirements include (1) filling out paperwork to be on state ballots (this step is quite vital) and (2) collecting 30,000 signatures of citizens who endorse the campaign. When looking into the first requirement previously stated, Kanye has reportedly only filed the paperwork for fewer than 10 states, which could be an issue in the future. In regard to the second point, there has been recent news that Kanye has gathered less than 14,000 so far, but more than 600 signatures were fake. This means that the rapper has fewer than 800 legitimate signatures. This forgery is not the best foot to start off on when looking to become the most powerful man in America. Just saying.

Now to get to the question that most people have been thinking about: how much of a chance does Kanye actually have at becoming the President of the United States? Considering that President Trump also did not have a background in politics, having a rapper become the POTUS would not be the craziest thing to happen. But in reality, how likely is this scenario?

According to a survey that Redfield & Wilton Strategies took, about 2% of adult American citizens would be willing to back up Ye in his political endeavors. Clearly, Kanye is not a significant threat to the Democratic and Republican nominees. Although Ye’s chances of winning the actual election are slim, the concerning aspect of his campaign is how his nomination could become a distraction from voters choosing a legitimate POTUS on the ballot. Citizens must ask themselves: how many votes will be essentially wasted on a nominee who has no real chance of winning? And more importantly, could these votes be vital in determining the most competent President?

Ultimately, Kanye’s Presidential campaign is not an issue of whether or not he will become President in 2020. His campaign has been getting a lot of media attention due to its absurdity and not its legitimacy. Kanye running for President is an issue of how many votes will be stolen by the Birthday Party which could be the deciding factor between the Democratic or the Republican Party.