Following almost a year of continued protests, China has finally passed the controversial Security Law, which is seen by critics as a major infringement on the special freedoms Hong Kong has enjoyed since it was returned to China in 1997. The security law would make illegal any secessionist speech and to many critics marks the end of the one country two systems status quo that has existed since the late 90s. But the passage of this law happened in the broader context of China and the CCP asserting itself.

Professor of Asian Studies at Georgetown Michael Green sees the passage of this law and the expanded military presence in The South China Sea as evidence of China’s growing ambition to absorb Taiwan within its sphere of influence. Xi has maintained the One-China policy and, in recent years, has ratcheted up his rhetoric about the annexation of Taiwan by force. The main deterrent of the forceful reclaiming of Taiwan is the US Naval presence in the South China sea.

Though that naval presence has recently been the source of increased tensions between China and the United States, the temporary withdrawal of the USS Roosevelt due to Coronavirus left vulnerable US interests in the South China Sea. Aware of the dangers such a vacuum would provide, the US has sent two carrier groups for military exercises. The deployment of these ships led to increased hostility between the two countries in the region as the Chinese defense minister accused the United States of carrying out “navigational hegemony.”

Growing tensions with Taiwan

To make matters worse for Taiwan, in recent months, China has become increasingly critical of Taiwan for supplying protesters with equipment and acting as a place of refuge for pro-democracy activists at risk of imprisonment under the new security law. The presence of Taiwan undermines the image of a united China and contradicts the narrative Xi is trying to push forward for China’s future.

If the passage of the security bill is indicative of anything, it is that Xi knows how to play the long game. He was able to wait through months of protests and pass the bill under the circumstances of a global pandemic. All the while, he slowly advanced his agenda, ultimately being able to pass the law and avoid protests of a similar scale.

As Xi plays the long game, expect to see the expansion of Chinese naval capabilities in the South China Sea as well as become more aggressive in the region.