On Wednesday, New Zealand’s National Party, the main opposition party in the New Zealand House of Representatives, selected a new party leader after the unexpected resignation of Todd Muller earlier this week on Monday. The National Party, the largest centre-right wing political party in New Zealand, has faced countless struggles over the past year: sinking opinion polling results in the upcoming September elections was coupled this week with the revelation that two party figures leaked personal details of Covid-19 patients. 

Judith Collins, nicknamed “Crusher Collins” for her proposal of crushing the cars of boy racers, or youth who drive aggressively fast, was selected after having served for almost two decades in Parliament and holding countless ministerial positions under the premierships of John Key and Bill English. Collins will face the popular Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern of the Labour Party in the upcoming election, though polling suggests that regardless of the leadership change, The Nationals are gearing up for an election night defeat.

An Obituary for The Nationals

Todd Muller’s resignation comes at a low point for The Nationals. The National Party won the plurality of seats in the last election, held in 2017, just short of the necessary 61 to create a majority in the House of Representatives and carry then-Prime Minister Bill English to a proper first term. Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party beat English to the punch though, courting the kingmaker of the election, Winston Peter’s nationalist and populist party, New Zealand First, which joined a Labour/Green coalition government, thus ending nine-years of National Party rule. 

Todd Muller’s ascension to party leader came earlier this year in May, after ousting Simon Bridges after a string of historically low polling results for the upcoming fall election. Prior to the coronavirus outbreak, the Nationals had been running tight in the polls with Labour, but Ardern’s leadership during the pandemic has been praised nationally and internationally, translating to a high lead over The Nationals. A poll released four days ago by market research firm Roy Morgan puts Labour at 54.5%, with The Nationals at a distant 27%. 

The Nationals hope that by selecting Judith Collins they can inject some life into the election, which some see as an expected blowout by Ardern. Collins, an admirer of Margaret Thatcher, has already begun canvassing in Labour strongholds like Maori and areas with a heavy Pacific Islander population. Collins, though, faces an uphill battle, with Labour gearing up for a win that might allow it to govern without a coalition, a clear affirmation in support of Ardern.

New Zealand Pivots to Economic Recovery

Though Jacinda Ardern, the 39 year old Prime Minister of New Zealand, warned earlier this week that New Zealand should be prepared for a coronavirus resurgence as countries throughout the world see their infections rise, New Zealand lies in an odd spot in the world stage. Ardern, in early June, announced the lifting of all coronavirus restrictions after the recovery of the last New Zealand case and seventeen days straight of no new cases arising. New Zealand’s government took fast and decisive measures, following an “elimination policy” which included a seven week lockdown, leading to the government announcing cautiously that they expected the virus to be eradicated by June 15 on the island nation.

Ever since, Ardern’s government has pivoted to recovering the New Zealand economy, which has been deemed to be in a recession, a first in decades. The New Zealand economy has been affected by the abrupt halt in tourism, which accounts for five percent of the economy, with the ANZ New Zealand bank predicting that the New Zealand GDP will shrink by eight to ten percent. Ardern’s government has begun to educated its citizens about “wellbeing” and “job training”.

Ardern’s campaign launch earlier this month for the September election revealed that Labour is putting the economy at the forefront of its strategy, promising an extension of a small business loan program and creating new environmental and infrastructure jobs. With high polling numbers, odds are that Ardern will be able to act upon these promises with a second term this fall, though time will tell whether Collins will be able to narrow those numbers.